There is a lot to like here. As always, it's a thoughtful treatment of a problem that is overdue for thoughtful treatment.
But....I just can't help the sense (and it is a depressing sense) that the European failures in space are just the natural results of far more fundamental problems -- problems that your "Socialism on One Planet" essay last spring teased rather well. Those problems go well beyond stifling bureaucracy and regulatory apparatuses; I think the most fundamental issue is that Europe is a rapidly aging society, older, indeed, than it ever has been before at any point in history. And older societies struggle to find the energy for new solutions, for growth, for opportunity. Instead, what enthusiasm we *do* see is for "de-growth" initiatives. The rapid-fire deindustrialization that Germany, the UK, the Low Countries are currently undertaking just cannot make sense outside of that.
Does that make building a vibrant European space industry an impossible exercise? I would hate to suggest that. But it clearly makes it more difficult. And I don't have an easy answer for that.
I would argue that in order to get Europe out of the malaise you describe, we have to have goals - a reason to reform the system instead of just drifting through the "end of history" and diving up a dwindling pile of 20th century spoils.
I was also going to suggest Advance Market Commitments to spur innovation.
While there is a vibrant commercial space industry emerging in the US and China, Europe is woefully behind. This is remarkable because the continent has all the right ingredients, including a large and talented workforce. Given the uncertain future of the United States, technological progress needs to accelerate in Europe.
Industrial policy might be key. AMCs could help drive experience curve effects, lowering the cost of production and accelerating the accumulation of knowledge inside upstarts.
I am wondering if we might pair AMCs with cash prizes for breakthrough technologies, with the caveat that all prize winners and AMC recipients are forbidden from patenting any of their innovations.
This would accelerate progress and knowledge accumulation whilst ensuring that this knowledge could diffuse easily throughout the continent.
The future is off-world and will require the resources of every region. Europe needs to be a player. Good luck with your petition.
Hello Peter,
There is a lot to like here. As always, it's a thoughtful treatment of a problem that is overdue for thoughtful treatment.
But....I just can't help the sense (and it is a depressing sense) that the European failures in space are just the natural results of far more fundamental problems -- problems that your "Socialism on One Planet" essay last spring teased rather well. Those problems go well beyond stifling bureaucracy and regulatory apparatuses; I think the most fundamental issue is that Europe is a rapidly aging society, older, indeed, than it ever has been before at any point in history. And older societies struggle to find the energy for new solutions, for growth, for opportunity. Instead, what enthusiasm we *do* see is for "de-growth" initiatives. The rapid-fire deindustrialization that Germany, the UK, the Low Countries are currently undertaking just cannot make sense outside of that.
Does that make building a vibrant European space industry an impossible exercise? I would hate to suggest that. But it clearly makes it more difficult. And I don't have an easy answer for that.
I would argue that in order to get Europe out of the malaise you describe, we have to have goals - a reason to reform the system instead of just drifting through the "end of history" and diving up a dwindling pile of 20th century spoils.
I was also going to suggest Advance Market Commitments to spur innovation.
While there is a vibrant commercial space industry emerging in the US and China, Europe is woefully behind. This is remarkable because the continent has all the right ingredients, including a large and talented workforce. Given the uncertain future of the United States, technological progress needs to accelerate in Europe.
Industrial policy might be key. AMCs could help drive experience curve effects, lowering the cost of production and accelerating the accumulation of knowledge inside upstarts.
I am wondering if we might pair AMCs with cash prizes for breakthrough technologies, with the caveat that all prize winners and AMC recipients are forbidden from patenting any of their innovations.
This would accelerate progress and knowledge accumulation whilst ensuring that this knowledge could diffuse easily throughout the continent.
Good luck! 😊