The Rise of the Space Powers

We are learning who will dominate the rest of the 21st century - and beyond.

In each age, there are criteria which distinguish the greater powers from the lesser ones. In the 19th century, you were either a colonising power like Britain and France, or you were a subject of these powers like India or China. In the 20th century, it was nuclear weapons and a permanent seat on the UN security council.

The decisions that allow a nation to join the ranks of great powers are often made long before their greatness becomes reality. In the 15th Century, the Ming Dynasty abruptly stopped sending out its famous Treasure Fleet, whilst European powers such as Spain and Portugal expanded their naval explorations in order to route around Ottoman restrictions on trade. This led to a catastrophic fall in Chinese power relative to Europe which played out over the coming centuries, but was not obvious to decision makers at the time.

I have felt for some time now that we are living in what may be the most pivotal period in history in many of our lifetimes. This decade has been unusually eventful, and I think 2020 can be thought of as the beginning of the 21st century proper, in the same way some historians mark a “short” 20th century beginning in 1914. It is in this context which I think decisions are being made that will shape the world far into the future, and the criteria that define power in the future are being laid down. The one which will be most important in my view, and stand with the above mentioned signsof great power status, will be the ability to send material into space and to control resources there. By looking at current trends, we can project forward what the political landscape of the late 21st century may look like.