Starship Flight 4: A Turning Point
Starship has completed a successful test flight from beginning to end, despite problems on the way. The program is gaining momentum.
Today I’ve witnessed one of the most dramatic space flights I have ever seen - both for the events of the flight itself, and their implications for the future. I did not think Booster 11 and Ship 29 would complete all their objectives. I was cautiously optimistic for the booster landing, but thought that SpaceX would need a few more test flights to survive a reentry. I was wrong - but it was a close call.
All 33 engines started at launch, but one had already shut down by the time the rocket cleared the tower. I was a bit nervous - but no more engines shut down during ascent and the hot staging went off without a hitch.
The boost back burn was, as far as I could tell, perfect, and shortly after we saw some shots of the hot stage ring being jettisoned - this was to reduce landing weight and apparently won’t be necessary on future flights. As the booster descended into the atmosphere, the grid fins were working hard but it seemed to keep control, and 12 of 13 engines lit for the landing burn. The one that did not start may have exploded, as a spray of debris was seen at the time. In any case, no other engines shut down prematurely and the landing burn worked. The booster gently touched down on the waters surface and we saw it tipping over just before the feed died.
The flight of the booster we so successful that SpaceX will be attempting a tower catch on the next flight. But even more incredible is what happened to the ship. After a successful burn to orbit, it was able to orientate itself for reentry and survive intact enough to reach the ocean and perform its flip manoeuvre for a soft landing. But it seemed close to disaster.
The Reentry Issue
During reentry, we saw plasma burning through one of the flaps. It appears to have got through the hinge between the flap and the ship, and then begun to melt the upper part of the flap. I, like most people watching including the hosts of the SpaceX stream, thought we were about to see the end of the mission. But ship 29 was a fighter.
Despite the worsening burn through, Starship continued to fly steadily. There was a brief loss of signal, and the camera was damage to the point it was hard to see anything, but the telemetry remained good. The ship was then able to reach the surface, ignite three engines, and perform the landing flip. The last wee saw of it seemed to be images of it tipping over into the water.
Elon Musk summarises the flight thus:
Confirming there was tile loss in addition to the flap damage. This has been expected. The thermal protection system is one of the biggest risks for Starship remaining. The Space Shuttle notoriously had many issues with a similar system
The Shuttle tiles initially wouldn’t stick to the orbiter. Then there was a fear of a “zipper effect” where a single loose tile would drag off many others with it. There were numerous debris strikes against the heat shield, including a notorious episode in 1988 when Atlantis suffered sever damage during the STS-27 mission. Ultimately a failure of the thermal protection system would destroy the Shuttle Columbia and her crew in 2003 aboard STS-107.
The systems are not quite the same, but are similar enough to draw comparisons. Both have to cover large surfaces without excess weight, and both require refurbishment between missions. Getting rapid reuse obviously requires this be minimised. If due to the thermal protection system or other reasons SpaceX is unable to cheaply and quickly reuse second stages, then the Starship project as envisioned may be in trouble.
A Fork in the Road
We can’t be sure of the future. There are multiple ways the Starship program could turn out. I think we can rule out total failure of the program at this point as very unlikely - but it might be that first stage reuse works, while second stage reuse proves too hard for SpaceX. that would be disappointing, but not the end of the world.
A partially reusable Starship would be a rocket with almost twice the payload of a Saturn V (as it would not have to carry tonnes of reuse equipment) but with the economics of a Falcon 9. Being able to launch a vehicle in this class perhaps 100 times a year would be revolutionary in itself. It would give us the kind of presence in space that people imagined would follow Apollo - Moon bases, Mars expeditions, large space stations. No million person cities at that level, but certainly a very exciting future.
But a future with Starship being fully reusable is a whole other revolution on top of that. Not hundreds but thousands of flights. True sci-fi made real. Here are just some of the ways such a future could impact your life in the next decades
For the price of a car, you will be able to buy a return trip to Earth orbit. For the price of a house, beyond to Mars.
Metals like gold and platinum will become incredible cheap as asteroid miners attempt to get rich. We will find new uses for them which had previously been precluded by their cost.
There will be cities on Mars, perhaps the Moon, and free floating in space. Countries will worry about losing talented young people to these colonies, and be forced to change policies to make it more attractive to stay.
There will be structures in the sky that will be so large as to visible to the naked eye. Reminders, for better or worse, of the scope of human achievement.
Products you use every day will be manufactured in Earth orbit and imported. Things like medicines, artificial organs and fibre optic cables.
Some polluting industries will move off Earth, beginning with data centres.
After many years, the rate of human migration off Earth will exceed the natural increase in the planets population, decoupling our growth from the biosphere and thus resolving the conflict at the heart of environmental politics for good.
None of this is certain - but thanks to the work of the engineers at SpaceX, its more likely than it was yesterday. But there is still much work to do. On to flight 5!
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