This month I’m doing comparisons between SpaceX and two its potential competitors; the China National Space Agency, and Blue Origin. The latter of the two is not necessarily going to be competing directly on launch, and they have made an interesting announcement regarding their plans this month.
Falcon Flights
First lets look at the flight rate for Falcon 9 and Falcon Heavy by month instead of annually:
The red curve is fitted to all the data on the plot, whereas the orange one is only fitted to data from 2024 onward. The pale columns are estimates for the last three months of this year based on the red curve. Whats noticeable here, both by eyeballing the data and the fits, is the is a slowing of pace. Falcon 9 is not yet cresting its S-curve, but its certainly at an inflection point.
Meanwhile, we have seen an interesting uptick in launch rate from China, counting the rockets they fly which cover a comparable payload range:
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