Mass Value Report for October 2023

The take off in cadence of Falcon 9 launches has set an impressive precedent - but given the long delays to Starship, can SpaceX maintain this growth?

SpaceX has completely disrupted the launch market with Falcon 9. No other vehicle on the market can match it for cost or for launch cadence. However, the rocket has its limitations. It has limited payload mass and volume, and its performance beyond low Earth orbit is suboptimal. Most importantly though, the ever increasing cadence it currently has must at some point reach a maximum. This would represent a fixed flow rate of mass into space, at a level which would not permit the ultimate ambitions of SpaceX to be realised.

Therefore, Starship must pick up the baton and run with it. This vehicle has not yet flown successfully, and if Falcon 9 is nearing its maximum, then will this delay to Starship represent a slowing down of the previous exponential growth we have seen in mass to orbit?

The Falcon 9 Model

To start with we need to look at the ongoing Falcon 9 model.

The orange bar is the projection for the remainder of the year, and the overlaid green bars are Starlink launches.

The flight…