Mass Value Report for November 2023

What will be the biggest source of mass on orbit in the coming decades? Earth launched mass, or mass sourced from the Moon and other bodies?

We are entering an exciting time in space development. The Moon is becoming busy with robotic missions and will soon again be visited by humans, with an intention of building a long term base. Several new launch systems are set to debut in the next year, and the demand for launch services does not seem to be significantly slowing.

This month we are going to once again look at the potential for lunar development; our capabilities in space are a function of mass, and that mass can be launched from Earth or from the Moon, or anywhere else. Can we compare the prospects for these two approaches?

The Falcon/Starship Model

To start with we need to look at the ongoing Falcon 9 model.

The orange bar is the projection for the remainder of the year, and the overlaid green bars are Starlink launches. There were 9 flights in November, giving a projected flight rate for the year of 93, representing 43% growth and 1640 tonnes. The year-on-year growth rate excluding Starlink flights is 31%

I am now also …