Mass Value Report for May 2026

Progress and Setbacks

It has been a month of mixed fortunes for the space industry - the return to flight of Starship was partly successful, with an anomaly in the booster still requiring a fix before flights can continue, but New Glenn suffered a far more serious setback when the booster for its fourth flight exploded during a static fire, destroying itself and the only launch site Blue Origin have. Meanwhile, although the most recent Starship flight was a partial success, that program is years behind schedule and still has work to do.

In these reports I’ve been tracking progress in spaceflight, and there has been much to be optimistic about. For several years, Falcon 9 has shown exponential growth at a rate comparable to Moore’s law, accelerating us towards a bright future in space. But true exponential phenomena do not exist in nature, only logistic S-curves. Sustained growth requires stacking those curves to maintain growth rates.

I first noted the signs of Falcon reaching the peak of its own curve two years ago:

That process is well set in now, but the next generation of launch vehicles expected to pick up the baton have stumbled somewhat. Where does that leave the predictions of space colonies?