Mass Value Report for June 2023

China is now being seen as the main rival to the US in space. How do their capabilities compare, now and in the near future?

The People’s Republic of China has stated its intention to be the worlds leading space power by its centenary in 2049. In a recent press conference the deputy director of the CNSA stated that China will be able to land humans on the Moon by 2030. How close is the competition between China and the US in launch, and is there an actual race to the Moon in progress?

Before looking at launch capability it is important to have some understanding of Chinese vehicles. The main fleet of Chinese rockets, the Long March series, can be divided into 2 existing generations and a 3rd generation to come:

1. ICBM derived vehicles. Long March 1-4 are all ultimately derivatives of the DF-5 ballistic missile, sharing 3.35m diameter tanks and hypergolic propellants. Their payload capacities are mostly small, they are launched from a site in Inner Mongolia and sometimes drop spent stages on villages. These will eventually be phased out, but the Long March 3B and 2D are still satellite launch workhorses and the …