Mass Value Report for April 2023

Can Starship continue the growth curve demonstrated by Falcon 9? What does this mean for future SpaceX plans to services Artemis missions and colonise Mars?

The recent Starship test flight ended in loss of vehicle before stage separation. Whilst its a useful milestone towards making the vehicle operational, not all of the objectives were achieved and there was some damage to the launchpad. It is not clear when another test launch can be attempted, both from an engineering and a regulatory standpoint, but Elon Musk is hopeful for another launch this year.

Whilst Falcon 9 has been an utterly game changing rocket both for SpaceX and the global launch industry, the future of the company depends on Starship. To achieve the goal of creating a city on Mars, the amount of mass we can send to low Earth orbit and beyond needs to continue to increase exponentially. The current exponential trajectory of Falcon 9 will inevitably flatten out to an S-curve, and Starship will have to pick up the baton to continue the race.

The Starship Curve

In a recent interview, SpaceX COO Gwynne Shotwell set an aspirational target

If we can do 100 flights of Falcon this …